India's Path to Qualifying for WTC Final: Exploring All Scenarios Post Boxing Test Defeat to Australia

India's hopes of qualifying for the WTC final took a major hit as Rohit Sharma and the team suffered a crushing 184-run defeat in the Melbourne Test against Australia. This loss saw India's points percentage (PCT) drop from 55.89 to 52.77, pushing them down to third place in the points table. With a total of 114 points from 18 matches, India's chances for making it to the final have been significantly dented. In the current 2023-25 cycle, India has won 9 games, lost 7, and drawn 2, making their path to the final even more challenging.

On the other hand, Australia boosted their chances of reaching the second consecutive WTC final after winning its 10th match in the ongoing WTC cycle. Pat Cummins and co. have elevated their PCT to 61.45 from 58.89.

South Africa have already qualified for the summit clash set to be played at Lord's Cricket Ground in June 2025. The Proteas sealed qualification after winning the first Test against Pakistan in Centurion.

India are now running the major risk of being knocked out of the WTC final race by the time the fifth and final Border-Gavaskar Trophy Test comes to an end in Sydney.

If Australia win or draw the final Test in Sydney, beginning January 3, it will knock India out of contention for the WTC final.

What does India need to do to qualify for WTC final?

India's fate is no longer in their hands after losing in Melbourne. Rohit Sharma and co now need to win in Sydney to keep their hopes alive of making it to Lord's.

If India win and level the Border-Gavaskar Trophy 2-2, they will need Sri Lanka to win 2-0 against Australia. If this happens, India's PCT will reach 55.26, while Australia's will stand at 54.26.

If Australia manages to draw one match against Sri Lanka, they would end up having better PCT than India.

If India lose or draw the Sydney Test against Australia, they would be out of the WTC final contention.

Updated WTC standings:

South Africa (Q) (PCT 66.67)

Australia (PCT 61.45)

India (PCT 52.77)

New Zealand (PCT 48.21)

Sri Lanka (45.45)

England (PCT 43.18)

Bangladesh (PCT 31.25)

Pakistan (30.30)

West Indies (24.24)

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