WTC race update: South Africa claims top spot as India feels the pressure

In Gqeberha (formerly Port Elizabeth), South Africa emerged victorious over Sri Lanka by a margin of 109 runs, clinching the two-match series 2-0 on Monday. This impressive win propelled South Africa to the top of the ICC World Test Championship table, boasting a remarkable 63.33 percentage points. Following closely behind in second place is Australia with 60.71 percentage points, while India sits in third with 57.29% after their recent defeat at Adelaide. With England and New Zealand falling out of contention, the race to Lord’s next year is shaping up to be a three-team battle between South Africa, Australia, and India. Sri Lanka and Pakistan find themselves in a challenging position, needing to push themselves to their limits and rely on other results to have a chance at making the cut. The competition is heating up as the top teams vie for a spot in the prestigious championship.

South Africa’s ascent was almost unnoticed, and now they have the highest probability of making it to the final given they only need to win one of their next two Tests against Pakistan. Even if Pakistan manage to level the series 1-1, South Africa can still finish No.2. A 2-0 finish however will seal South Africa’s place. The equations get complicated if South Africa draw both their Tests to finish on 58.33% and Australia win at least three of their next five Tests (they play Sri Lanka next). A 0-1 defeat to Pakistan however will leave South Africa hoping on Australia winning maximum two of their remaining five Tests, or India finishing 2-2 in the current series.

Winning both Tests in Sri Lanka is far more difficult than it seems on paper for Australia. Which is why the onus is on them to win at least two of the next three Tests against India to cement a final berth. A second-place finish is on the cards if Australia draw this series 2-2 and lose 0-2 in Sri Lanka, pushing India to third.

How can India qualify?

Two wins and a draw should push India to 60.53% and at least a second place, behind South Africa. A 3-2 win would give India 58.77%, meaning Australia will have to win both Tests against Sri Lanka to surpass India. No other result would suffice for them.

However, if India were to lose 2-3, they would finish on 53.51 and risk slipping to fourth behind Sri Lanka. For India to qualify from that position would require South Africa to lose both Tests to Pakistan and Australia drawing at least one Test in Sri Lanka or levelling the series 1-1.

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